How To Live With Uncertainty

Comforting predictability has been in short supply ever since the COVID-19 pandemic turned the world upside down back in March of 2020, and it’s anyone’s guess what tomorrow will bring. 

That’s why we must find ways to live with perpetual uncertainty: Cognitive science, my field of expertise, can help us do exactly that. 

Surprisingly, research shows that we get significantly more anxious and upset when we don’t know what’s about to happen than when we know for certain that something bad will happen. While uncharted terrain tends to breed uneasiness across the board, some of us find the unknown especially scary. A new study in the Journal of Anxiety Disorders, for example, demonstrates that tolerance of uncertainty and aversion to risk can predict COVID-19 fear levels.

Uncertainty, which our brains are hardwired to dislike, is particularly pernicious because it threatens the possibility of danger without giving us enough information to mount an appropriate response. 

Since the present is entirely unprecedented and the future is so unknown to us, this might even be the most stressful period of the pandemic: What will the “new normal” look like? Will we go back to our in-person jobs or is remote work here to stay? Will the virus evolve to evade the current vaccines so that we have to enact fresh lockdowns every few years to develop new ones?

We can’t know the answers to these questions, but it is possible to acclimate to the unsettling sensation of sand shifting beneath our feet as we try to move forward – beyond the confusion, anxiety, and sadness that has engulfed our lives for the better part of two years.

Here are some proven strategies for living with uncertainty:

Plan for multiple scenarios – Being caught off guard is unpleasant (there’s a reason why feeling lost, missing an important event, and waking up late are among the most common nightmares), but you can do some contingency planning to quell such fears. Try developing concrete plans for the two or three scenarios that worry you most, such as how your family would manage day-to-day life if schools shut down again or what techniques you would rely on to ensure aging and immunocompromised relatives are safe in the event that the virus evades current vaccines. 

Exercise – Staying physically active helps improve mood and tamp down worries. While it’s likely an oversimplification to assume you’ll be able to jog, swim, cycle, or ski your fears away, a recently published, large-scale population-based study out of Sweden strongly suggests that regular exercise lowers the risk of developing anxiety – possibly by as much as 60%. Additionally, experimental data has shown that a single brief exercise session improves working memory, inhibitory control, and cognitive flexibility. It’s quite possible that the clarity of your post-gym thinking will enable you to more effectively manage uncertainty. 

Stay busy – You might think that more free time is better, but having too much unplanned time on your hands might just give you more opportunities to ruminate. A recently published study found that having too much leisure time is associated with poor mental health, but, as one of the researchers explained to NBC News, using discretionary time productively, “can make you feel accomplished, fulfilled.”

Write down your worries – Journaling is useful because the act of putting your fears in writing can prevent them from swirling around in your mind and help you understand they are not as big as they initially appear. And by decreasing rumination, you’ll be able to concentrate and focus more easily. Work by Dr. James Pennebaker shows the power expressive writing (or journaling) has on our mental and emotional well-being. And for those who are especially worried about a particular activity or task, research shows that journaling for several minutes right before the event can boost performance. Acknowledging fear can help you make sense of it, which allows you to flourish.

There are reasons to be hopeful that our collective recovery from this dark time is on the horizon, but if you’re finding that these flickers of optimism are making you feel worse, not better, that’s completely normal. This transition period won’t last forever. You can and will get through it. Just remember not to be too hard on yourself.